Economic News

World Bank president says it'll be 'very hard' for some countries to avoid recession

World Bank president says it’ll be ‘very hard’ for some countries to avoid recession

World Bank President David Malpass said Sunday that the world economy is undergoing a “sharp slowdown” due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and warned it will be difficult for some countries to avoid recession. “We’ve seen the world growth fall by half since January, in terms of GDP growth,” Malpass said in an interview on …

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Citigroup cuts S&P 500 target to reflect blend of recession, ‘soft landing’ scenarios

Citigroup analysts have cut their S&P 500 target for this year by 500 points to 4,200, after stubbornly high inflation spurred the Federal Reserve to aggressively raise interest rates. “Fed hawkishness and the rising real rate impact on valuations has been a defining feature” of the stock market drawdown in the first half of 2022, …

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This ‘underappreciated’ black swan could bring fresh chaos to the global economy

New week, same bounce. Stock futures point to fresh gains as investors grow optimism that a bond rout is ending, and the Fed’s rate-hike plans will get pruned due to a global slowdown. Of course, that optimism comes as discontent grows around the world from high commodity prices that have driven up food prices, cramped …

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Stocks Break Out. Will Recent Market Declines Restrain the Fed?

Text size A copper smelter in Jinhua, China. Copper prices, often a signal of where the economy is headed, fell 6% this past week. Top Photo/Sipa USA/Alamy The stock market has predicted nine of the past five recessions, economist Paul Samuelson famously quipped back in the 1960s. A half-century later, is the stock market driving …

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Recession is challenging inflation as top fear among stock and bond investors

It’s easy to want to duck for cover given the carnage seen this year in stocks and bonds, particularly with the Federal Reserve vowing to wage an unconditional battle against high inflation. While inflation running at a 40-year high still sits near the top of the list of worries for many investors, another potential bugaboo …

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Fighting Global Inflation Could Lead Developing Countries Into Financial Crisis

Text size Shoppers browse eggs at an outdoor market in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Although Brazil’s central bank is months into an aggressive tightening campaign, the country’s inflation rate was still 11.3% in March. Maria Magdalena Arrellaga/Bloomberg About the authors: Indermit Gill is the World Bank’s vice president for Equitable Growth, Finance, and Institutions. M. …

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Can the ECB Fight Inflation and Financial Fragmentation at the Same Time?

Text size The European Central Bank is working on a program to address “financial fragmentation.” Markets will want to read the fine print, writes Silvia Merler. Daniel Roland/AFP via Getty Images About the author: Silvia Merler is the head of ESG and policy research at Algebris Investments and an adjunct lecturer in economics of global …

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Fed says banks could withstand 10% unemployment, 55% stock price drop in annual stress test

Fed says banks could withstand 10% unemployment, 55% stock price drop in annual stress test

The Federal Reserve Board on Thursday projected the potential for a rockier road ahead for banks than it did a year ago, but said the 33 financial institutions it reviewed its annual stress test of capital reserves. The Fed estimated $612 billion in potential losses for banks in its most severe economic scenario, and said …

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